Is A Stock Market Crash In Sight? Insiders Are Bailing At The Fastest Pace Since 2021
- - Is A Stock Market Crash In Sight? Insiders Are Bailing At The Fastest Pace Since 2021
Benzinga ObserverFebruary 4, 2026 at 6:31 AM
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The U.S. stock market has been on a tear for more than three years — but the people running America's biggest companies are suddenly selling into the strength at a pace not seen since the last major market peak.
Corporate insider selling has surged to its highest sell‑to‑buy ratio in five years, according to data cited by Maverick Equity Research. In an X.com post, the firm warned that "U.S. Corporate Insiders like & love the current high valuations as they are quite selling: highest Selling/Buying ratio in 5 years… 2021 crazy valuations time, they were quite smart and sold nicely before the 2022 bear market."
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The timing is hard to ignore. Since late 2022, the U.S. stock market has been powered by a blistering AI‑driven rally. The S&P 500 rose 23.3% in 2024, another 16% in 2025, and added 1.4% in just the first month of 2026, pushing the index above 7,000 for the first time ever. The gains have been so relentless that many investors have stopped asking whether the rally is sustainable — but insiders appear to be asking exactly that.
Big Players Signal Caution
And they're not the only ones flashing caution.
Over recent months, several major institutions and analysts have issued warnings about the risks building beneath the surface of the market. The IMF cautioned last quarter that "sky‑high stock valuations are increasing the risk of disorderly corrections", noting that U.S. equities — especially AI‑linked names — are trading well above fundamental levels.
A January 2026 market outlook from Fidelity International highlighted that elevated valuations and index concentration have already prompted profit‑taking and increased volatility across sectors.
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In its December 2025 commentary, Northern Trust Asset Management noted that U.S. equity valuations were "elevated" relative to historical norms and that market leadership remained unusually concentrated. The firm pointed out that a small group of mega‑cap stocks continued to dominate index performance, and while they still saw room for the rally to continue, they highlighted that these valuation and concentration dynamics were important factors shaping the market backdrop.
A Signal Hard To Ignore
Put together, the picture is clear: insiders are selling aggressively at the same moment global institutions are acknowledging concerns about stretched valuations, extreme concentration, and the possibility of corrections.
None of this guarantees a crash. But insider behavior has historically been one of the market's more reliable early‑warning signals — and right now, that signal is flashing its brightest warning since 2021.
The rally may still have room to run. But the people closest to the numbers are quietly heading for the exits.
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